Newport Beach lifeguards are already on pace for one of their busiest seasons in years, and federal climate forecasters say conditions are about to get more challenging.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced Wednesday, July 9, that there is an 81% chance a "very strong" El Niño will develop by this fall. Only seven El Niño events in the past 75 years have reached that classification. Combined with a sprawling Pacific marine heat wave nicknamed "the Blob," the pattern raises specific safety concerns for Southern California's coastline: more sharks nearshore, higher coastal flooding risk, and hotter temperatures driving larger beach crowds.
Sharks could push into Orange County waters
Chris Lowe, director of Cal State Long Beach's Shark Lab, said baby great white sharks began appearing off California in February, earlier than normal. He told Patch the combination of El Niño and the marine heat wave mirrors 2015, when juvenile great white activity surged along the Southern California coast.
"This is becoming a perfect storm," Lowe said. "This is what we think is going to make SoCal the white shark Mecca this summer."
As of late May, shark aggregations had been spotted near Will Rogers State Beach in Los Angeles County and Santa Barbara, with little activity yet off Orange County, according to the OC Register. But Lowe said more juveniles could move into nearshore nursery habitat as ocean temperatures continue warming through the summer, and strong El Niño years also bring species not normally seen in the region, including tiger sharks, bull sharks, and hammerheads.
The Shark Lab operates tagged-shark buoys that text lifeguards when a shark swims within 300 feet of shore. Funding from the original $3.75 million state grant is depleted, however, and the lab faces layoffs in August unless a $1.7 million bill by state Sen. Tony Strickland, R-Huntington Beach, passes the Legislature.
Lifeguards logging heavy numbers early
Newport Beach lifeguards conducted 516 rescues and 12,104 preventive actions during the week of June 6–15, according to Adam Yacenda, the city's lifeguard battalion chief.
"That's a decent number with one week in," Yacenda told the Los Angeles Times. "If that was just to carry on every week, we'd have over 3,000 rescues."
The city has 224 lifeguards deployed this summer, including 96 across towers, truck patrols, and rescue boats, 53 assigned to the Junior Lifeguard Program, and 75 reserves, according to NBFD Chief Lifeguard Brian O'Rourke. In 2024, lifeguards made 3,071 rescues for the full year.
Coastal flooding risk grows
King tides in mid-June already toppled a lifeguard tower and swallowed a construction vehicle left on the beach. During that event, the Newport Beach City Manager's Office identified the most flood-prone areas: Newport Island, Balboa Island, Finley Tract, Lido Village, Balboa Village, LaFayette Avenue, the Peninsula, and portions of the Lake Avenue area.
Andrew Leising, a NOAA research oceanographer, said El Niño will compound the problem by warming ocean water at depth, causing it to expand and raise sea levels along the coast.
"Whatever storms you do have and put them on top of that, it will be more impactful when you have those waves coming up on the beach," Leising told the OC Register.
Daniel Swain, a UCLA climate scientist, said the coming winter carries an increased likelihood of historically unusual rain and storm events. In two of the four previous "very strong" El Niños on record, downtown Los Angeles received more than double its usual yearly rainfall.
What residents should know
The city distributed sandbags to residents during the June king tides and has utility crews monitoring flood-prone neighborhoods. NBFD has not announced broader El Niño preparedness plans as of Friday, July 11.
Residents can report coastal hazards or request sandbags through the city's public works department at newportbeachca.gov.
